SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 30: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers gets helped up ... [+]
Philadelphia 76ers team president Daryl Morey once believed in the "5 percent theory." If your team had a 5 percent chance of winning a championship, it had to be "focused all on winning the title," he once told Grantland's Zach Lowe.
For most of the 2023-24 NBA season, Morey's Sixers had been in the 5 percent conversation. Fueled by reigning Most Valuable Player Joel Embiid, the Sixers were around +1300 to win the title a few weeks ago. But now that Embiid is set to have a "corrective procedure this week to address an injury to the lateral meniscus in his left knee," the Sixers have tumbled to a +4000, per FanDuel Sportsbook.
The procedure is expected to sideline Embiid for an "an extended period of time," according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. The Sixers won't know his exact timetable to return until after the surgery, but the best-case scenario seems to be 6-8 weeks and the worst-case would likely be season-ending.
It's a devastating setback for Embiid, who recently scored a franchise-record 70 points against the San Antonio Spurs. He's leading the league in scoring for the third straight season with a career-high 35.3 points on 53.3% shooting, 11.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 1.8 blocks in only 34.0 minutes per game. Prior to his injury, he was on a historic pace by any definition of the word.
It also came at an inopportune time for the Sixers, who are besieged by injuries only days before the Feb. 8 trade deadline. Now that they know Embiid won't be back anytime soon, they'll have to reevaluate their options at the deadline, particularly if they were planning on being major buyers.
The Sixers might have felt pressure to cash in with Embiid playing as well as he was, but that changes if he's expected to miss most or all of the rest of the season. Instead, they could turn their focus toward the offseason, when they have the ability to create around $55 million in salary-cap space.
To generate that much room, the Sixers would have to renounce the rights to all of their free agents other than Tyrese Maxey. That includes starters Tobias Harris, De'Anthony Melton and Nicolas Batum, along with nearly their entire bench. If the Sixers spent nearly all of that space on a third star—even if it's LeBron James or Paul George—they'll be left with minimal cap space, the $8.0 million room mid-level exception and minimum-salary contracts with which to round out their roster.
The Sixers also have to keep the league's new salary-floor rules in mind. The new collective bargaining agreement mandates that teams reach the floor—90% of the cap in a given year—by the first day of the regular season. Those that don't will forfeit their share of the luxury-tax payout, which tends to be eight figures per team.
If the Sixers strike out on their top targets in free agency—or their top targets never become available, such as Kawhi Leonard, OG Anunoby or Pascal Siakam—they might have to scramble because of the new salary-floor rules. They could pivot by handing out a few short-term balloon contracts, just like the Indiana Pacers did with Bruce Brown Jr. this past offseason, or they could run the same core back and hope for better luck with health next year.
With Embiid's rest-of-season status up in the air, the Sixers might be tempted to pin their hopes on the offseason. The full array of penalties go into effect for teams over the second apron this summer, which could cause some teams to salary dump talented players. The Sixers might see that as a buy-low opportunity on the likes of Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine or Golden State Warriors forward Andrew Wiggins, which they might prefer over paying premium assets for an equivalent player now.
However, the Sixers also could be getting cold feet about the cap-space plan as they see the free-agent market drying up before it even begins. That should make them more open to taking on contracts that extend beyond this season at the trade deadline, even though that would cut into their future flexibility. Again, the new salary-floor rules loom large here.
Either way, another big man should rocket to the top of the Sixers' priority list at the trade deadline with Embiid likely out through at least mid-March. They only have a four-game lead over the seventh-seeded Orlando Magic
The Sixers will likely do what they can at the trade deadline to keep their season afloat until Embiid returns, if he can at all. But any pressure they felt to maximize his historic season might have dissipated in the wake of his knee injury.
The Sixers aren't likely to climb higher than the No. 5 seed in the East, which means they probably won't have home-court advantage for a single round of the playoffs. Having to go through three of the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks just to get to the Finals wouldn't be easy with a fully healthy Embiid, much less with one on the mend from a knee surgery.
Most Sixers fans won't want to hear it, but the team's best path forward at the deadline is finding a stopgap big and otherwise pivoting its focus toward the offseason. Whether that means prioritizing flexibility or sacrificing it for players on multiyear deals will come down to how the Sixers evaluate the likelihood of their options playing out this summer.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
