Right after the Dallas Mavericks knocked the Los Angeles Clippers out in the first round of the 2024 NBA playoffs, attention immediately pivoted to the futures of Clippers stars Paul George and James Harden.
George has been eligible to sign a four-year extension worth up to roughly $221.1 million with the Clippers all season, but he has yet to do so. If he doesn't sign a new deal by June 30, he could become an unrestricted free agent by declining his $48.8 million player option for the 2024-25 season. Meanwhile, Harden is guaranteed to become a free agent this offseason.
Both George and Harden predictably demurred when asked about their futures after their Game 6 loss on Friday. But while Harden may have a tough time mustering much of a market outside of Los Angeles, rumblings about potential George suitors have already begun to emerge, with the Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic both lurking as legitimate threats to sign him in free agency.
That gives George all of the leverage over the Clippers heading into the offseason. It also leaves the Clippers at an inflection point as they weigh how much to offer him.
Even if George leaves in free agency, the Clippers project to be over the $141 million salary cap if they re-sign Harden to anything close to his $49.4 million max salary. If they re-sign both George and Harden, they'll likely cross over the projected $189.5 million second apron. Doing so would result in a host of roster-building restrictions, including no access to the mid-level exception in free agency, not being allowed to aggregate contracts in trades and not being able to take back more salary in a trade than they send out.
In other words: If the Clippers re-sign George and Harden, they'll likely be restricted in the ways they can rejigger their roster. Maybe they can flip Norman Powell or Terance Mann for a different rotation player this offseason, but they won't be able to make a flashy free-agent signing. With Leonard's health looming as a constant threat to their championship upside, the Clippers' early-season playoff exit might call into question whether to run back the Big Three at all.
With the new Intuit
Leonard signed a three-year, $149.7 million extension with the Clippers in January, which was nearly $10 million less than the maximum amount he could have received. If George and Harden were likewise willing to take below-max deals, the Clippers could have paved a path for Big Threes under the NBA's new collective bargaining agreement. (That was the Clippers' hope, according to Amick and Murray.)
It's unclear exactly how much the Clippers have offered George thus far. In late March, longtime NBA insider Marc Stein alluded to "suspicions" that their extension offers to George "have fallen an unknown amount shy" of what they gave Leonard, which could also explain his hesitation to sign thus far.
In the wake of their first-round loss to the New York Knicks, the Sixers can now create nearly $65 million in cap space this offseason, which is more than enough to fit George's $49.4 million max salary next year. According to ESPN's Brian Windhorst, George is "the player at the top of their list," and Windhorst believes the Sixers will be willing to offer him a full max contract.
Even if George prefers to stay with Leonard in L.A., he can leverage the Sixers' interest in him against the Clippers in contract talks. The Sixers can offer George a four-year max deal worth up to a projected $212.2 million, which is only $8.9 million shy of the most that the Clippers can offer. (George has the Over-38 rule to thank for that.)
The Clippers likely couldn't save face by turning George's departure into a sign-and-trade, either. Teams over the first apron can't receive players via sign-and-trade, and if George went to Philly, the Sixers have almost nothing but free agents on their roster. The Sixers could send back the non-guaranteed contracts of Paul Reed and Ricky Council IV along with Jeff Dowtin Jr. (if they picked up his $2.2 million team option), but that's it.
Teams over the second apron also can't receive contracts in return if they sign-and-trade their own free agents away. If the Clippers wanted to sign-and-trade George, they wouldn’t be allowed to exceed the projected $189.5 million second apron at any point next season if they took a single player back in return.
The Sixers and Magic aren't George's only possible landing spots this offseason. Rather than declining his $48.8 million player option to become a free agent, he could decide to pick up his option and try to force a trade elsewhere. (The Knicks loom large as a logical destination.) That would at least allow the Clippers to get some assets in return rather than losing George for nothing as a free agent.
Since teams can now begin legally negotiating with their own free agents one day after the NBA Finals end, the Clippers will have time to sort out George and Harden's future before free agency begins. If George is angling for an opt-in-and-trade rather than becoming a free agent, the Clippers should have at least a few days to negotiate with George's preferred team before his opt-out deadline.
It would behoove the Clippers to spend the next eight weeks imparting the importance of sacrifice to both George and Harden, both on and off the court. If both of them demand full max contracts this summer, they'll further limit the ways the Clippers can build around them, decreasing their championship upside in the process. Taking below-max deals could help the Clippers stay below the second apron in a year or two, which would give them far more flexibility.
Otherwise, the Clippers soon could be forced to choose between losing George and making a financial commitment to him that they aren't keen on.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.