Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell looks to the field during the first inning of the team's ... [+]
After Wednesday’s games, the 2024 season will be officially halfway over for the Chicago Cubs. Even with a win against the Giants on Wednesday night, they would be five games under .500. The last time they were at least at the .500 mark was three weeks ago, and they haven’t had a winning record since May 28. They went 18-12 in March/April, but since then, the Cubs have had a 19-31 record.
At some point, it’s no longer bad luck. It’s no longer a tough stretch. It’s a below average baseball team.
The Cubs’ struggles have come down to two things: Their offense is too sporadically productive, and the bullpen can’t be trusted. The team’s .229 batting average ranks 25th in the league, and their bullpen’s 4.55 ERA ranks 24th. Only the starting pitching has been good, but that’s not proven to be enough.
“There's no question we left runs on the bases, for sure,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell told reporters after Monday night’s loss to the Giants. “We could have had five, six, seven on the board by just moving the ball forward and [we] didn't do it. And we've got to do better at that.
“That was a game that we should have broken open. And that cost us.”
In that game, the lineup mustered just four runs, but they held a 4-2 lead going into the ninth inning. Then the bullpen gave up three runs in the bottom of the ninth to blow the lead and the game. The next night, the Cubs lost 5-1, failing to support the superb pitching of starter Kyle Hendricks, who gave them seven two-run innings.
Those two games were illustrative of how the Cubs have played for the majority of the season. They either lose because they don’t score runs or because they can’t count on the bullpen to protect a lead. Or in some cases, a disastrous combination of the two.
Unless they improve significantly on one or both of those fronts, this is who the Cubs are. They will muddle their way through the second half of the season and likely finish half a dozen games or so under .500.
But as the National League wild card standings sit now, the Cubs are only four games out of a spot in the playoffs. Granted, most of the National League is within a few games’ reach, and it’s that fact that makes the approach to the trade deadline tricky.
They could make aggressive moves to try and improve the team in order to make a run at competing with the rest of the league, but team president Jed Hoyer has warned that if that’s the approach he takes, he will not jump the market with a June trade. At least not unless he’s going to dip into the organization’s farm system.
“It’s incredibly difficult to make those kinds of transactions on June 17,” Hoyer told reporters earlier this month. “It’s just a matter of how much capital you’re willing to give up prospect wise.”
Assuming he holds to his word, Hoyer has to hope his team finds a way to keep at least treading water so they haven’t dropped too far out of serious playoff contention by the time the July 31 trade deadline rolls around. And then when that time does come, Hoyer has to hope that the players he needs are available. The tightness of the NL playoff race likely reduces the number of teams looking to sell while also potentially increasing the number of teams looking to do the same thing as the Cubs at the deadline.
It does not seem likely at this point that Hoyer would decide to go in the opposite direction and sell at the deadline. Mostly because there isn’t a lot for him to offer. The aforementioned Kyle Hendricks is the only player headed for full-fledged free agency in 2025, making him the only rental trade option. Otherwise, Cody Bellinger might choose not to exercise his $27.5 million player option for ‘25, but given the numbers he is putting up so far this season, Bellinger is more likely to stick around in Chicago. His .769 OPS isn’t going to persuade a different team to pay him even more than the Cubs already are.
Beyond those two, Hoyer and Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins would have to look at convincing teams to take on at least part of the contracts of players under more team control. Outfielders Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ are signed through 2026, and second baseman Nico Hoerner is in the first year of a three-year, $35 million deal. It’s unlikely any of those guys are being moved.
The third option for the Cubs’ front office is to ride out this season mostly as is. Hoyer has been careful not to say his team is rebuilding, but making a trade or two with a longer view than the 2024 season might be the approach he has to take.
Doing that, standing pat at this year’s trade deadline, is not going to make the fanbase happy. The Cubs have not won a playoff series since 2017, and they are coming off of posting losing records in two of the last three seasons. The patience among the Wrigley faithful for waiting on another playoff team is already thin.
For now, the reality is that we’re far enough along into the season to make a diagnosis of the 2024 Cubs, and it’s not a good one.
