The Irony Of Tropical Storm Alberto Forming On Juneteenth

Juneteenth is a federal holiday honoring June 19th, 1965. On that date, federal troops arrived in Galveston, Texas to announce that over 250,000 enslaved black people were free. On the same date, the first named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season formed, and ironically, it is also affecting Galveston. Here’s what you need to know about Tropical Storm Alberto.

According to the National Hurricane Center, tropical storm warnings have been issued for, “The Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande.... the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Tecolutla.” Tropical Storm Alberto was expected to continue a westward track. The NHC discussion goes on to say, “On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will reach the coast of northeastern Mexico early Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast today or tonight before the center of Alberto reaches land.”

Even prior to becoming a named storm, Galveston, Texas and other locations along the Texas coast were experiencing significant flooding. Peak water levels could reach 2 to 4 feet above normal levels in places like Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass. Alberto is expected to weaken by Thursday night, but it is a storm with a large footprint. Tropical-storm-force winds could be found as much as 415 miles north of the center. Parts of south Texas and northeast Mexico could also experience 5 to 10 inches of rainfall and as much as 20 inches over higher terrain. Flooding (river, urban, and flash) and mudslides are likely hazards for the region. Dangerous tornadoes and rip currents, even far from the center, are also possible.

So how unusual is Alberto from a climatological standpoint? Actually, there is nothing particularly unusual about the timing and location at all. The first named storm of the year typically forms around June 20th, according to NOAA records spanning the period 1991 to 2022. The first hurricane typically forms around August 11th, and the first major storm (Category 3 or greater) is expected at the beginning of September. Most seasonal predictions call for an extremely active hurricane season because of extremely warm sea surface temperatures and the transition to a La Nina.

As for location, NOAA has analyzed tropical cyclone points of origin from 1851 to 2015. During the middle of June, storms typically form in the eastern Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, or Bay of Campeche. Tropical Storm Alberto was no exception as it formed near the Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center ended its discussion by warning, “Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.”