A full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah looks increasingly likely. The intensifying war of words, punctuated by aerial ordinance exchanges, reached a peak recently when Hezbollah made public drone footage of Haifa, the Israeli city closest to Lebanon, itemizing various military and industrial locations. Hezbollah, in effect, announced it had clear knowledge of strategic zones, intended to strike them, and is able to fly a reconnaissance drone above the city unhindered. And this as Israel has completed a plan to invade Lebanon to quell Hezbollah. The next step seems inevitable after months of hostilities. According to CNN, "Hezbollah has fired more than 5,000 rockets, missiles and drones at northern Israel since October 7... For its part, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes in Lebanon and evacuated approximately 60,000 residents from the northern border. More than 90,000 Lebanese have also fled their homes in the area."
You'd be forgiven for thinking that a war by any other name already exists. But an Israeli ground campaign constitutes a quantum step further. The US and its allies have warned both sides against it, especially Hezbollah with allied threats of intervention on the side of Israel. What would that mean and what are the prospective geostrategic scenarios?
First a little history. The last such war in 2006 resulted in much destruction on the Lebanese end and Israel lost 55 Merkava tanks, which surprised the Israelis. It had unexpected repercussions. For example, when I covered the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia for the Wall Street Journal, the then President of Georgia told me that anti aircraft missiles sold by Israel to Georgia could not be used against Russian planes because Putin had warned Israel he would resupply Hezbollah if Israel helped Georgia. In other words, a localized war between Israel and Hezbollah doesn't stay localized. Putin became more influential in Israel subsequently with the carrot added to the stick - a lot of Russian oligarchs took dual Israeli citizenship and Russian money flowed into Israel. Let us not forget that, when Barack Obama was elected President, Putin made a show of pointedly visiting Israel before him, to illustrate Moscow's closer relations.
Things are different now. Putin was forced to pick sides between Iran and Israel because Moscow is dependent on Iran for weapons and drones in Ukraine. And Iran is Hezbollah's chief backer. So expect Russian support for Hezbollah via Iran. Relevant contacts in Israel suggested to me that stealth technology for the drone flying undetected above Haifa possibly came from Russia. But also expect a massive online troll and bot campaign globally against Israel once the border is crossed. Comparable to Gaza. Only Moscow has the global disinformation network to take it to the Western world's streets and colleges as happened with Gaza.
The effect is global in the sense that it puts any leader up for election in a quandary - or any leader sensitive to popular sentiment on the street. In Turkey, for example, Erdogan was forced to make a public show of disinvesting from Israel. But the quandary effect will be felt by leaders far and wide, even in the US - supporting genocide or not supporting Israel enough. The point here is that the calculation was always global, with the disinformation machine fully prepared, even before October 7 lit the fuse (see my November 13 column citing stats that some 25% of social media commentary within two days were false accounts).
Putin's message since his latest invasion of Ukraine was always that he would bring the war home to countries against him or not sufficiently on his side. In short, he would destabilize the world if he didn't win in Ukraine. Seen from that perspective, the actions of Hamas and Hezbollah become provocations in a much bigger geostrategic picture. There's no doubt that an Israeli ground campaign that involves invading Lebanese territory will generate ample scenes, true or false, of civilian slaughter thereby putting pressure on Western leaders, dividing the world and their own populations against them. Any Arab or Muslim country sitting on the fence will face huge internal pressure too.
And, all this, is also why Western leaders have tried to lean on Netanyahu to limit the damage or widening of the war. They are aware that it plays into Moscow's game plan of upheaving the status quo sufficiently to affect their own elections. And currently the West is facing some critical elections - in the US, UK and France. Iran is willing to sacrifice plenty of victims for this game, as is the Kremlin.
