Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden in 2020 (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will face off on Thursday night in a 90-minute debate—but regardless of what either man says on stage, it won't likely change the opinion of many of their supporters and detractors on social media.
Instead of serving as a real-time gauge of what potential undecided voters think of the messages the candidates offer tonight, the platforms will likely be filled with memes that poke fun at any slip-up and misstep.
Even worse, we can expect plenty of misinformation and even disinformation to circulate—and already there are claims that Biden will need to be "juiced" up on caffeine, or something far stronger. Likewise, if either man has a strong showing, critics will pounce claiming somehow they received information from off-stage.
It won't be the first time, of course.
An unsubstantiated rumor began following a 2004 debate between then-President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry that Bush was wearing a hidden transmitter. The story gained enough traction that it was widely covered by the mainstream media—and to some extent debunked. Yet, even 20 years later, there are still those who likely believe Bush was "wired up."
What makes 2024 different is that regardless of what any fact checkers post or what evidence may be presented, misinformation and disinformation will hit social media as soon as Biden and Trump walk out on stage.
"In today's social media landscape, the substance of the debate itself is likely to be overshadowed by how well certain moments reinforce existing stereotypes," warned Dr. Tauhid Zaman, associate professor of operations management at Yale University.
"The impact of the candidates' messages will be minimal unless they serve to bolster prevailing narratives, such as portraying Biden as senile or Trump as erratic," added Zaman. "Viral clips of Trump appearing unhinged or Biden showing signs of memory lapses can easily feed into echo chambers, solidifying and amplifying these perceptions among their respective audiences. In essence, the potency of the debate lies not in the comprehensive discourse but in the isolated moments that resonate with pre-existing biases."
Who Will Win? It Won't Matter On Social Media
The significance of presidential debates may matter less today as the 24-hour news cycle ensures that everything the candidates say and do is on full display.
The plethora of cable news programs with clear-cut agendas and the seemingly endless podcasts from self-professed pundits ensure that every move Biden and Trump make is covered to an extent not previously possible—yet, today much of it remains focused on tearing the other side down rather than touting anything positive about the candidate they're supporting.
Social media then amps this up. It will be no different following the debate.
"Many people will consume content from the debate over social media. This is concerning because social media platforms already control a great deal of information. These curated spaces will amplify content that supports the user's preconceived notions, which means they are not receiving a balanced view of the debate itself," explained Dr. Julianna Kirschner, lecturer in the Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism at the University of Southern California.
"If a user both watched the debate and consumed content on social media, the situation still wouldn't be balanced," she added. "Anyone on the fence after watching the debate will likely be pushed over to one side or the other based on what the algorithm determines they should see."
Those with extreme opinions will likely receive content in their feeds that reinforces their confirmation bias.
"They might begin to believe that more people hold this same political belief," said Kirschner. "In addition to the inherent biases of social media platforms, objectively false content predominantly circulates in these spaces. Regardless of one's political position, misinformation and disinformation tend to prevail. Again, these tend to confirm a user's beliefs or be so polar opposite as to solicit a negative response. In either case, users remain active on the platform, which is what platform creators want. All of these cases are problematic because no one is communicating with the other side. Further political and social divisions can only result in such a climate."
A Lasting Impact That Could Sway Voters?
As the earliest presidential debate to date—and even before either Biden or Trump is even an official nominee for the respective parties—it has been argued that an outstandingly good or bad performance on Thursday evening isn't likely to matter much given that the election is still five months away.
Yet, social media can make the worst moments resonate far louder and for much longer than ever.
"Social media's propensity for highlighting awkward or dramatic moments means these clips can bounce around echo chambers, but they generally don't have a lasting effect unless they reinforce existing narratives," said Zaman. "I can't recall specific analyses from past debates, but I vividly remember the viral moments that would have dominated social media had it been prevalent back then."
Zaman suggested some moments still stand out, such as Ronald Reagan declaring, "I am paying for this microphone," or quipping about not holding his opponent's youth and inexperience against him; George H. W. Bush checking his watch; Barack Obama telling Hillary Clinton she was "likable enough"; Mitt Romney outperforming Obama—memorable largely due to Chris Matthews' on-air meltdown afterward—and notably Trump bringing Bill Clinton's accusers to a debate.
"These viral moments are what people truly remember and discuss, highlighting that the utility of debates lies more in these memorable exchanges than in the detailed reporting on them," said Zaman. "This reflects the broader trend that social media amplifies these moments, shaping public perception far more than in-depth analysis ever could."
Social media has simply changed the meaningfulness of debates.
Once reporters may have wanted to be a fly on the wall to hear what the candidates said to their staffers following the debates, but as 2020 proved, social media was more obsessed with the fly on then-Vice President Mike Pence's face!
