Topline
As Republicans vie to hang on to their slim House majority following a chaotic two years in which the GOP former President Donald Trump’s divisive brand of politics regularly stonewalled legislative business and led to the first ouster of a House speaker in U.S. history, these are the House races to watch.
U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) (L) hands the gavel to newly elected Speaker of ... [+]
Key Facts
Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio: The longest-serving female House member, Kaptur will face Republican state Rep. Derrick Merrin in the November general election after her district—won by former President Donald Trump—was redrawn in 2022 to lean more Republican, making her a top GOP target.
Rep. David Schweikert, R-Ariz.: Democrats are eyeing Schweikert’s seat after he won reelection by less than one point in 2022, and his field of potential challengers is already growing crowded with at least 10 candidates competing in the Democratic primary, including the widow of the state’s former Republican attorney general, a former state representative, a Wall Street executive and the former CEO of the American Red Cross’ Arizona-New Mexico region.
Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb.: Bacon and Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas are headed for a rematch in the toss-up district after Vargas lost to Bacon by fewer than 6,000 votes in 2022.
Michigan: Two Democrats in the swing state are leaving their toss-up seats open and susceptible to GOP flips: Republican former state lawmaker Tom Barrett, who lost to Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin in the 2022 midterm, is challenging former Democratic state Sen. Chris Hertel for Slotkin’s seat as she runs for the Senate, while voters will decide in August which Republican and Democratic candidates will advance to the general election to fill Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee’s seat as he’s set to retire in January.
New York: Three seats Republicans flipped in the 2022 midterm—Rep. Mike Lawler’s district just north of New York City, Rep. Marc Molinaro’s district just south of Albany and Rep. Tony D’Esposito’s Long Island district—are vulnerable to Democratic challenges, while the seat held by Republican Rep. Brandon Williams, who narrowly defeated his Democratic opponent in the 2022 midterm, also leans Democratic, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
California: Four seats could be flipped in November: three held by Republicans—Rep. John Duarte’s district just south of Silicon Valley, Rep. Mike Garcia’s Los Angeles-adjacent district, and Rep. David Valadao’s district encompassing parts of Bakersfield and its northern suburbs—and one Democratic district, left open by Rep. Katie Porter, who was recently defeated in the primary to fill late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat.
What To Watch For
Republicans are poised to flip three seats in North Carolina under newly redrawn district lines, while Louisiana’s redistricting process all but guarantees a Democrat will oust Republican Rep. Garret Graves.
Big Number
212. That’s the number of seats rated safe, likely or leaning Republican by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, compared to 206 for Democrats. Cook Political Report rates 203 seats solid, likely or leaning Democratic and 210 seats solid, likely or leaning Republican. Parties need 218 seats for a House majority.
Key Background
Republicans narrowly flipped the House in the 2022 midterm, setting the stage for what’s been a chaotic 118th session of Congress as far-right lawmakers have leveraged the GOP’s narrow House majority to block Democratic legislation and push their policies and priorities. During their time in the majority, Republicans opened an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, blocked passage of the fiscal year 2024 budget for six months, stymied additional to Ukraine and Israel and—for the first time in history—removed a House speaker, former Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. The outcome of the down-ballot races are expected to be deeply indicative of Americans’ feelings about Trump and Biden as both parties try to capitalize on Americans’ negative feelings about their respective presidential candidates.
Tangent
Turmoil in the House, coinciding with Trump’s solidified hold over the GOP, prompted the resignations of at least two GOP Congress members (Buck and Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wisc.), and McCarthy’s ouster. With those resignations, plus that of former Rep. Bill Johnson, R-Ohio, who stepped down to take a job at Youngstown State University, and the expulsion of former Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., the GOP’s majority will be narrowed to just one seat come April 19 when Gallagher leaves Congress.
Further Reading
Another House Republican Is Resigning—Narrowing GOP Edge To One Seat (Forbes)
Republicans Win Narrow Majority In U.S. House (Forbes)
McCarthy Ousted: First House Speaker Ever Booted From The Job (Forbes)
