Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Reynaldo Lopez (40) in action during a baseball game against the ... [+]
Today and tomorrow, we’re going to take a look at a major first half pitching performer in each league, one who’s dominating in the most traditional of pitching stats - ERA - and see if their performance holds up to advance metric scutiny. Today, the Braves’ Reynaldo Lopez, who’s posted a 1.70 ERA with barely too few innings to qualify for the ERA title (he’ll likely be a qualifier after today’s start) is under the microscope.
No matter our conclusion, Lopez was quite a find on last offseason’s free agent pitching market. Though he pitched almost exclusively in relief from 2021-23, the Braves saw him as a starter and inked him to a three-year, $30 million deal with a team option for 2028. He’d be worth that kind of money as an elite middle reliever or competent setup man, and here he is, excelling as a starter through a half-season.
By the looks of Lopez’ raw numbers he appears to be a Cy Young contender. A 1.70 ERA, a very solid K rate (25.6%) and an adequate BB rate (8.5%). And at first glance, he appears to be managing contact as well as anyone in either league (75 Unadjusted Contact Score). He’s been spectacular at managing contact on fly balls, as hitters are batting only .183 AVG-.437 SLG in the air, for a minuscule 32 Unadjusted Contact Score.
Peel a layer back on that last set of numbers and we run into our first problem. Lopez has been very, very fortunate on fly balls this season. Major league pitchers have allowed hitters to produce at a .867 AVG-3.169 SLG clip on 105+ mph and .527 AVG-1.750 SLG on 100-105 mph fly balls. Against Lopez, they’re batting .667 AVG-2.500 and .333 AVG-.833 SLG, respectively. He’s posted a 109 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score and has been a below average contact manager so far, with a 114 overall Adjusted Contact Score. Once you add his Ks and BBs back into the mix, he’s an exactly league average pitcher, with a 100 “Tru” ERA- that is far worse than his 41 ERA- and 72 FIP-.
This is not Lopez’ first rodeo as a starting pitcher - he pitched enough innings in both 2018 and 2019 as a member of the White Sox to qualify for the ERA title. He showed flashes of potential back then but his performance was quite uneven overall, not an unexpected result for an unfinished 24/25-year-old hurler. His K rate has risen since then, while his BB rate is in the same range. He qualified to receive pitch grades, one of my annual evaluation exercises, in those seasons and the words “average to slightly below average” came up again and again.
He never got anything better than an average “B” pitch grade. Both his fastball (106 Adjusted Contact Score, 6.7% whiff rate in 2018, 118, 8.6% in 2019) and slider (80, 17.2% in 2018, 85, 16.8% in 2019) got “B” grades both years, and his changeup graded out below average both years (102, 11.9%, “C” in 2018) and 131, 14.9%, “D+” in 2019). He never posted an above average Adjusted Contact Score or “Tru” ERA-, and never held hitters to lower than league average contact authority overall or in any single batted ball type.
And this year.......he hasn’t broken any of those patterns. He’s still allowing louder than average batted ball authority, and has a below average Adjusted Contact Score. His four-seamer (102 Adjusted Contact Score, 7.3% whiff rate) and slider (121, 20.8%) are still average, “B” grade pitches, and his third offering, now his curve (106, 10.8%, “C+”) is still a below average pitch.
So, Lopez has not made an amazing breakthrough into the top tier of major league starters. Yes, his K rate is up. Yes, he still has a solid pop up tendency and has raised his grounder rate above previous career norms, so there are some tangible improvements here, just nothing earth-moving.
So why are his mainstream numbers so good anyway? Beyond everything already discussed, how about these.....
- Hitters are 0 for 32 on grounders against his curve and slider
- Hitters are batting .116 AVG-.256 SLG on fly balls against his fastball despite the fact that 23.2% of them have been at 100 mph or harder
- Hitters are batting .143 AVG-.286 SLG on fly balls against his curve despite the fact that 28.6% of them have been hit at 100 mph or harder
Regression is coming, and it is not likely to be kind. Again, I’m not saying that his new club made a mistake bringing him aboard......he’s helped the Braves navigate a very star-crossed first half and remain firmly in playoff position. Look for Lopez’ numbers to reflect who he is - a league average range starting pitcher - much more accurately by season’s end.
