UFC 303 Fight Card Preview, Odds & Predictions: Pereira Vs. Prochazka 2

When Conor McGregor’s injured foot forced the cancelation of his UFC 303 main event bout against Michael Chandler, the UFC scrambled, putting in calls to two of the most intriguing fighters on the UFC roster. Those fighters, who agreed to meet at in the main event of UFC 303 fight card, are current UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira and former UFC 205-pound titleholder Jiri Prochazka. The short-notice scrap takes place on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Pereira is the defending light heavyweight champion, while Prochazka is the No. 1 fighter in the official UFC light heavyweight rankings. Both men last fought at UFC 300 in April. Pereira defeated former UFC champ Jamahal Hill by knockout on that card, while Prochazka knocked out Aleksandar Rakic.

The co-main event of Saturday’s UFC 303 fight card is a short-notice featherweight scrap between two-time title challenger Brian Ortega and the fast-rising Diego Lopes.

UFC 303 takes place on Saturday, June 29, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.

Below, we take a deep dive into the Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 matchup.

Careers

Alex Pereira

Alex Pereira (10-2) has packed a lot into 12 professional MMA fights. The soon-to-be 37-year-old came to MMA full-time in 2021 after a long and successful kickboxing career that saw him hold the middleweight and light heavyweight Glory Kickboxing titles.

Pereira was 3-1 in MMA when he decided to focus all his energy on that sport. He signed with the UFC not long after his final fight with Glory, and the Brazilian competitor made his UFC debut in November 2021, scoring a TKO win over Andreas Michailidis that earned him a “Performance of the Night” bonus. That bout was Pereira’s first, and to date, last appearance on a UFC prelim card.

Wins over Bruno Silva (decision) and Sean Strickland (first-round KO) followed that victory and put Pereira in a middleweight title fight against then-UFC champion Israel Adesanya, a man Pereira had defeated twice under the Glory Kickboxing banner.

Pereira moved his combat sports record against Adesanya to 3-0 at UFC 281 when he scored a fifth-round TKO over Adesanya in that November 2022 contest. However, Pereira’s time with the UFC middleweight crown was short-lived, as Adesanya got the title back with a second-round knockout in their rematch in April 2023.

After his loss to Adesanya, Pereira moved up to 205 pounds. His first UFC light heavyweight scrap was against former UFC champion Jam Blachowicz, which he won by unanimous decision. He then faced Jiri Prochazka for the vacant 205-pound title in the headlining bout of UFC 295, which took place at Madison Square Garden in November 2023. Pereira became a two-division champion that night, scoring a second-round TKO win over the former UFC light heavyweight champion.

Pereira had his first title defense at UFC 300, knocking out Jamahal Hill in the first round.

Pereira has eight knockout wins and two decision victories. His two MMA losses have been by stoppage, dropping his 2023 bout to Adesanya by knockout, and falling by submission in his first pro MMA bout, which took place in 2015 under the Jungle Fight banner.

Jiri Prochazka

Jiri Prochazka (30-4-1) entered the UFC in 2020 with a 26-3-1 record. At the time, he was coming off a knockout win over former UFC fighter C.B. Dollaway, which earned him the Rizin light heavyweight title.

Prochazka was riding a 10-fight winning streak ahead of his UFC debut, with nine knockout wins.

The former Rizin champ announced himself to UFC fans with a second-round knockout of former UFC light heavyweight title challenger Volkan Oezdemir at UFC 251. The UFC awarded Prochazka a “Performance of the Night” bonus for that knockout. He followed that stoppage with another knockout, decking another ex-UFC title challenger, Dominick Reyes, in the second round of their UFC on ESPN main event matchup.

The UFC, sensing it had something special in Prochazka, then booked him for a title shot. That fight came in June 2022 against reigning champ Glover Teixeira. That fight was a spirited affair, but Prochazka once again scored a stoppage victory when he picked up his first submission in more than nine years, winning the scrap in the fifth round via rear-naked choke.

Prochazka’s title reign was short-lived. A nasty shoulder injury forced him to withdraw from a scheduled rematch against Teixeira, and he vacated the title at that time.

Prochazka made his return to the UFC Octagon in November 2023 against former UFC middleweight champ Alex Pereira. Their UFC 295 headlining bout was for the vacant light heavyweight crown. Pereira claimed the belt with a second-round knockout win, handing Prochazka his first loss since ex-Strikeforce light heavyweight kingpin Muhammed Lawal decked him in late 2015.

Prochazka bounced back from that defeat with a “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning knockout of Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 300.

The 31-year-old Prochazka has 26 career knockout wins, three submission victories and one decision nod. His losses have come by way of knockout (three), and submission (one).

UFC 303 betting odds: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2

According to Draft Kings, Pereira is the -142 betting favorite over Prochazka, who is the +120 betting underdog. The closing odds of their first meeting saw Pereira enter the Octagon at -125 and Prochazka come in at +105.

Significant Stats

Pereira averages 5.10 significant strikes landed per minute with an accuracy of 62 percent. He absorbs 3.65 significant strikes per minute with a defense rate of 50 percent.

Prochazka lands an average of 5.75 significant strikes per minute. His accuracy on those blows is 56 percent. As for his defense, the former champ absorbs an average of 5.43 significant strikes per minute and his defense is 41 percent.

Prediction and Pick: Pereira Vs. Prochazka 2

Under normal circumstances, I would suspect the fighter who lost the first meeting to retool and enter the rematch with a different game plan. With so little time to prepare for this matchup, I don’t think Prochazka will do that, and I suspect, even if he had time, he wouldn’t change his plan of attack. The betting pick is for Pereira to win by knockout.

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