Javier Castellano, atop Mage, third from left, is seen behind with others behind the pack as they ... [+]
The Road to the Kentucky Derby continues with the championship series races offering the most points and interest to horse racing fans. The watch and wager action on the biggest Derby prep races increases as the 150th running of America’s biggest horse race at Churchill Downs in Louisville nears on Sat., May 4, 2024.
The winners of the U.S. championship series races will earn enough points to qualify for the 20-horse field in the Kentucky Derby. The winners are awarded 50 to 100 points, and the top-5 finishers earn points. Last year’s No. 20 horse in the Derby points standings qualified for the Run for the Roses with 45 points.
Bet Types And Understanding Horse Racing Odds
Beginning in 2017, the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby was introduced. Now featuring four races, the horse with the most points is granted automatic entry into the Kentucky Derby. The 1 1/8 mile Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama (JRA) on March 23 awards the winner 40 points.
The newest addition was the introduction of the Europe Road to the Kentucky Derby in 2017 that featured seven races in Ireland, Great Britain and France. These races are run on either turf or an all-weather track and six are contested at just 1-mile. The final Europe Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race awarding the most points to the winner (30) is March 30 with the Cardinal Stakes at Chelmsford City (GB).
While many early contenders for the 2024 Kentucky Derby will take more betting action, and more money if they win a key championship series race, know that longshot Mage (15/1) won the 2023 Kentucky Derby rallying from 14th at the 3/4 mile marker to win the 1 1/14 mile Derby and pay $32.42 on a $2 win bet. Mage was retired from racing to begin his stallion career in Nov., 2023 after winning just 1-of-6 graded stakes starts.
In the 2022 Kentucky Derby, Rich Strike was a late entry a day before the race and he rallied from 15th at the 1-mile marker and stormed down the stretch to steal the show and win at 80/1 parimutuel odds. Rich Strike became the second-biggest longshot to ever win the Kentucky Derby and paid $163.60 on a $2 win bet. Rich Strike never won another race and was just 1-for-8 in graded stakes before retiring from racing in Nov., 2023.
How To Bet On Horse Racing
After a 20-year absence, parimutuel wagering returned to Churchill Downs for the 1908 Kentucky Derby. Since then, the post-time favorite has won the Run for the Roses 40 times. A string of six-straight favorites won from 2013-2018 with Justify the most recent in 2018 on his way to capturing the Triple Crown.
Kentucky Derby Favorites And Odds
Here are current fixed odds to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby from Circa Sports in Las Vegas. These odds will change and often shorten following each championship race as more leading Kentucky Derby contenders emerge. Horse racing from race tracks have parimutuel odds, where players wager against each other and the host race tracks take a percentage of the total of each pool. The rest of the pool is split between the wagering winners.
You can follow FanDuel Racing for updated coverage, odds, picks, racing insight and additional information you can bet on leading up to and on the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Racing fans can also watch and wager on horse racing right from the Sportsbook app with live streaming from 300+ tracks.
Race Notes, Odds & Recap
Risen Star
Sierra Leone rallied down the center of the track with Tyler Gaffalione riding and caught Track Phantom at the wire to win the $400,000, Grade 2 Risen Star by 1/2 length over a sloppy track. Sierra Leone paid $7.40 to win on a $2 bet as the 5/2 favorite after Track Phantom (3/1) went gate-to-wire on the lead into the stretch before settling for second. Sierra Leone will race next in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 2 at Keeneland before running in the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
Rebel Stakes
Timberlake, a son of super sire Into Mischief, made his 2024 debut a successful one at Oaklawn Park by winning the $1.25 million Grade 2 Rebel Stakes. A Grade 1 winner last fall and 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Timberlake was the prohibitive 4/5 favorite in a field of 12 for the Rebel. He relaxed behind four horses down the backstretch and made his three wide move on the far turn. Jockey Cristian Torres had plenty of horse as he pulled away into the stretch and then drifted out a bit before continuing to the finish a 2-length winner over longshot Common Defense (27/1). Timberlake paid $3.60 to win, and the owners will wait to determine his final prep race before the his Run for the Roses in the Kentucky Derby.
Gotham
Deterministic (7/2) rallied through the lane and pulled away over a sloppy track at Aquecut to win the $300,000 Grade 3 Gotham by 2-lengths over race favorite Just a Touch (8/5). Stretch leader El Grande O (5/1) finished third in the 1-mile race. Trained by Christophe Clement and ridden by Joel Rosario, Deterministic paid $9.80 to win and was making his first start in seven months having won his maiden debut last September. He’ll likely make his next start in the Wood Memorial April 6 ahead of his entry in the May 4 Kentucky Derby, and probably be joined by El Grande O, who will need a top-3 finish in the Wood Memorial to earn enough points to get into the the 150th Kentucky Derby.
Fountain of Youth
Heavy race favorite Dornoch (1/5) went wire-to-wire in his sophomore debut to win his third-straight race and capture the $400,000 Grade 2 Fountain of Youth by nearly 2-lengths over longshot Le Dom Bro (27/1). Nine horses were entered for the Road to the Kentucky Derby series qualifier, but only five went to the starting gate after a quartet of scratches, including a pair of top contenders. Trainer Todd Pletcher withdrew Locked Saturday morning, and his impressive stablemate Speak Easy dumped jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. and was forced to scratch after running off in the post parade. Merit, who finished second in a Friday allowance race, and Victory Avenue were also scratched. Dornoch was the 4/5 favorite less than 5 minutes before the race, and dropped to 1/5 when Speak Easy was scratched just minutes before the race allowing bettors to change their wagers. Dornoch returned just $2.40 on a $2 win bet, and in the coming weeks it will be determined whether he runs next in the Florida Derby or Blue Grass Stakes before entering the 150th Kentucky Derby as one of the leading win contenders.
San Felipe
Bob Baffert-trained heavy morning line race favorite Nysos (1/5) was scratched a day ahead of the postponed San Felipe Stakes leaving a field of just four horses. One of Baffert’s other two runners, Imagination (4/5) went on to win the San Felipe by a head over stablemate Wine Me up (8/5) in a terrific and tight stretch duel. Imagination paid $3.80 to win. The Baffert runners are not eligible to earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points due to Churchill Downs extending its ban of the six-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer.
Updated Kentucky Derby leaderboard ahead of the Tampa Bay Derby on March 9.
Tampa Bay Derby
A super slow quarter and half mile pace set the stage for a strong stretch drive and a titanic tussle down the deep stretch with the Tampa Bay Derby producing a blanket finish. Four horses finished less than 1-length apart and Domestic Product rallied for the victory by a neck over No More Time and Grand Mo the First. The race was delayed a half hour and there was a tote outage so no final odds were available with No More Time (7/5) and Domestic Product (8/5) the advance morning line favorites. Most bettors, except those that bet early on in multi-race exotics, were shut out.
Jeff Ruby Steaks
Race favortite Endlessly (3/2) rallied outside of horses and responded well to go clear through the stretch in impressive fashion and win the $700,000 Grade 2 Jeff Ruby Steaks by 4-lengths over the all weather track at Turfway Park. It was Endlessly’s 5th win in six starts and third graded stakes win. Endlessly has yet to run a race on dirt, and following the victory, trainer Michael McCarthy announced that Endlessly would skip the Kentucky Derby and run on May 4th Derby Day in the American Turf Stakes. Four horses were bunched within a half-lenghth for 2nd in the Jeff Ruby, and longshot West Saratoga (36/1) was the runner-up (50 points) and his trainer Larry Demeritte declared West Saratoga was on to Louisville and will run in the 150th Kentucky Derby.
Louisiana Derby
A last to first winner has punched his ticket to the 150th Kentucky Derby. Catching Freedom (7/2) went from last (11th) to first with an extreme wide move on the far turn and jockey Flavien Prat kept his colt rallying to drive past horses and win the $1 million, Grade 2 Louisiana Derby by 1-length over Honor Marie (7/1). Pace setter and race favorite Track Phantom (2/1) finished 4th but now has enough Derby points to also run in the May 4th Kentucky Derby for trainer Steve Asmussen. Honor Marie’s trainer Whit Beckman will have a horse of his own in the Run for the Roses for the first time after serving as an assistant trainer previously for Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown.
Florida Derby
Fierceness won his first race as a 3-year-old, dominating a field of nine runners to win the $1 million Grade 1 Florida Derby by a record 13.5 lengths as the 6/5 favorite. Fierceness was last November’s FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, and he’s now the favorite to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby at +300 fixed odds after sitting at +2000 on Feb. 19 following a 3rd place finish in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes. Ridden by John Velazquez and trained by Todd Pletcher, Fierceness shattered the record for largest margin of victory set by Empire Maker (9 3/4 lengths) in the 2003 Florida Derby. Fierceness was geared down in the stretch with a huge lead, and his final time of 1:48.22 over 1 1/8 miles was the third fastest in the past 15 years. Pletcher-trained Always Dreaming (1:47.47) was faster, and he went on to win the 2017 Kentucky Derby, also with John Velazquez riding. Velazquez (6) and Pletcher (8) both extended their records of Florida Derby wins. Longshot Catalytic (29/1) finished 2nd behind Fierceness and has enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby.
Arkansas Derby
The Bob Baffert-trained Arkansas Derby winner Muth will not run in the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Baffert’s extended suspension by Churchill Downs will keep one of the country’s top 3-year-olds out of America’s most popular horse race. Muth (2/1) pressed the pace-setting favorite Timberlake down the backstretch and kicked clear turning for home to win the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby by 2-lengths over longshot Just Steele (32/1), who has enough points for 88-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas to run in the Kentucky Derby. Just Steel was ridden by jockey Keith Asmussen, who’s father Steve Asmussen will run Louisiana Derby favorite and 4th place finisher Track Phantom in the Kentucky Derby.
UAE Derby
Barring an injury or change in plans there will be two Japanese horses in the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Forever Young overcame a very wide trip and won the won the 1 3/16 mile $1 million UAE Derby comfortably by 2-lengths at the Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. It was his fifth win in five starts, which included a victory in the Saudi Derby. The other Japanese horse is likely to be T O Password, undefeated in two starts, who won the Fukuryu Stakes on March 23. No horse from Japan or winner of the UAE Derby has ever won the Kentucky Derby or finished top 3 since becoming a qualifier in 2008, as it’s proven difficult to manage a horse’s condition traveling from Dubai to Kentucky.
Wood Memorial
Resilience (9/2) is going to the Kentucky Derby for trainer Bill Mott. Sired by the most dominant stallion Into Mischief, Reslience saved ground rating just off the pace under a tight hold from jockey John Velazquez and moved up on the far turn. He took the lead coming to the quarter pole and kicked clear to win by 2-lengths. Runner-up Society Man is also Kentucky Derby bound and cashed in at huge odds of 106/1 for the largest exacta payoff in the championship series races on the Derby Trail. A $2 exacta #1-11 returned $742.
Blue Grass Stakes
Sierra Leone (3/1) topped a field of 10 horses to triumph in a historic 100th edition of the Grade 1, $1 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Sired by the great Gun Runner, Sierra Leone won his second straight race as a 3-year-old after capturing the Risen Star in February. Sierra Leone raced at the very back before moving up and chasing the leaders and drove past Just a Touch (3/1) in the final furlong to draw clear and win by 1 1/2 lengths. Trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, Sierra Leone will be one of the leading contenders in the May 4 Kentucky Derby in his fifth start. Just a Touch, sired by Triple Crown winner Justify and trained by Brad Cox, will make his fourth career start in the Kentucky Derby.
Santa Anita Derby
Stronghold (2/1) is going to the Kentucky Derby after winning the Santa Anita Derby by a neck over the favorite Imagination (1/1) in a dueling head-to-head stretch run. Sired by amazing Ghostzapper, Stronghold's dam, the Jimmy Creed mare Spectator, died giving birth to him. Stronghold won his second straight start this year after capturing the Sunland Derby and now has 3 wins and 3 runner-up finishes in six starts for trainer Phil D’Amato. Jockey Antonio Fresu will likely ride Stronghold in his first Kentucky Derby after winning his first Grade 1 race in the Santa Anita Derby. Imagination is not eligible to Run for the Roses as his trainer Bob Baffert is still suspended by Churchill Downs. However, a pending lawsuit in Jefferson County, Kentucky, is seeking a temporary injunction that would allow Baffert’s horses to run in the Derby, according to John Cherwa of the Los Angeles Times.
The Kentucky Derby leaderboard will not change at the top with one minor stakes race on the Derby Trail remaining on April 13. Sierra Leone (155 points) is on top followed by Fierceness (136), Catching Freedom (125), Stronghold (125), Resilience (110), Endlessly (100) and Japanese runner Forever Young (100).
Follow horse racing coverage and the biggest races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby with the top 3-year-olds now competing in the Triple Crown races - Kentucky Derby (May 4), Preakness Stakes (May 18) and Belmont Stakes (June 8).
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