Here’s A Look At The Coronavirus Curve In The Big Emerging Markets

The pandemic is winding down in parts of the world, with Asia being in the best shape of all. Mini-second waves in Spain and France have governments worried. And second waves in parts of Australia and New Zealand, once considered a victor in the bout against the new SARS coronavirus, is back on lockdown again in at least one city.

But the worst of the outbreak occurred in the Americas. The U.S. was the worst. Followed by Brazil. Mexico also struggled. India is still struggling even after lifting restrictions months ago in order not to starve the vast majority of locals who have not been sick, or sick enough to shut down their businesses. In such a poor country like India, forced lockdowns of the economy ultimately translates into millions of people going back into the poorhouse, the World Bank said at the start of the summer.

Here is where the biggest emerging markets are going into this week on the dreaded infection curve, and a look at how investors are treating them.

Brazil & $EWZ

Over 3.5 million people have contracted the virus there, with 114,420 people dying from complications caused by Covid-19, a lower respiratory tract infection like pneumonia that tends to be tougher for elderly patients.

Over the last month, since the number of cases have declined from the peak, investors have been sellers of the iShares MSCI Brazil. It’s down 9.3%, underperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

Brazil’s Codeplan, a capital city agency which is responsible for city planning, said this weekend that there was a 66% drop of the Covid-19 mortality cases in the last five days.

Russia & $RSX

Russia was the hardest hit nation in all of Europe, with Moscow being the epicenter. Some 949,531 people contracted the virus as of Sunday. But only 16,268 people died. Some said Russia was not calculating its numbers correctly, a charge handed down to China, as well. Here’s how things look:

Russia’s infection curve has been in decline since May, but the market hasn’t really rewarded them for it. The VanEck Russia (RSX) is up 10.9%, also underperforming the benchmark MSCI EM.

India & $INDA

India is the third hardest hit country. Over 2.97 million people have contracted the virus and 55,975 people have died from it. Government health ministry data updated on Saturday morning showed a record single-day spike of 69,874 infections. India is not out of the woods yet! Here’s their chart. It shows they are not even at peak coronavirus yet. The good news is that their mortality rate is low so their doctors have found a way to treat this fast spreading virus.

India’s stock market over the last three months is up 26% as measured by the iShares MSCI India (INDA) INDA fund. It’s beating the benchmark. And maybe it’s even beating the coronavirus. The mortality rate in India is 1.8%.

China & $ASHR

Does China even have the virus anymore? There was a scare a few months ago with Beijing reporting over 100 cases. Now that scare is over. Back in May, Wuhan tested 11 million people and only around 300 tested positive for SARS-Cov-2, most of them were not even sick. Surely the did not need hospitalization. Recall back in January when hundreds were getting sick and needing ICU beds in Wuhan hospitals, China was quickly building new hospitals just in case. Wuhan looks good, based on what we can trust from Beijing.

The World Health Organization visited their recently. There was not a word about Wuhan facing the pandemic a second time. Are the Chinese immune to the new SARS after facing the first one back in 2002-03? Maybe. If so, that’s a great thing.

A little under 90,000 people contracted the virus in China with only 4,710 deaths.

Investors in the XTrackers China CSI-300 A-Shares (ASHR) ASHR fund did as well over the last six months as investors in the Nasdaq NDAQ . Year-to-date, ASHR isn’t as good as the Nasdaq, but it’s way better than the emerging market benchmark, and is up 16.23%. The coronavirus pandemic is pretty much over in China. Just need someone there to make it official.

South Africa & $EZA

Not wanting to be left out, South Africa is climbing the charts. It is the worst hit African nation, though that is because it is the one doing most of the testing. They are now the fifth most infected nation, meaning every BRICS country minus China is in the top five. Only the U.S. takes the lead.

Some 607,045 people have contracted the virus there with only 12,987 deaths. Assuming they are reporting these numbers correctly, South Africa’s mortality rate from the new SARS is 2.13%.

It looks like pandemic is waning there, as well.

Since coming down from its peak a month ago, the iShares MSCI South Africa (EZA) EZA fund is down 5.2%, trailing the MSCI Emerging Markets benchmark. It’s been behind the eight ball over the last three months, six months and year-to-date, too, as the country has other problems, not just the pandemic.

South Africa and India have a better mortality rate than the United States, which currently has registered 5.6 million cases, 176,321 deaths, and a mortality rate of 3.1%. It’s about on part with Brazil’s mortality rate, currently sitting at 3.18%.

Russia’s mortality rate is 1.7%, similar to India’s.

China’s numbers may look low, but its mortality rate was the highest of them all, at 5.25% due to early missteps in handling the virus in Wuhan.

Based on data from the World Health Organization, southeast Asia is still climbing to peak coronavirus infections and Europe is heading into its second wave.