Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom arrived on home entertainment after a short seven weekends in theaters and abysmal box office of just (currently) $433 million worldwide, despite little competition and brand recognition as a sequel to a $1 billion blockbuster. Worse, it earns the franchise an infamous distinction as second-worst box office drop in in history, behind Marvel Studios’ Captain Marvel series last year. But the DCEU stumble is far more relevant than the MCU loss.
Patrick Willson and Jason Momoa star in "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom"
It’s true that The Lost Kingdom is the highest DCEU gross since 2018’s Aquaman. And I think it deserved more love from audiences. I’m a DCEU fan and a big fan of the Aquaman franchise — I loved the first film and the series is near-identical to how I suggested Warner adapt Aquaman, including casting Momoa and having him fight Black Manta with a backdrop of fun Pirates of the Caribbean piracy action-adventurism and Atlantis as “Avatar underwater.” So I want to root for it, because it’s essentially the Aquaman series I always wanted, and I don’t like what the data says.
But the film is still the ninth DCEU film in a row to gross less than $450 million and is the only one of that group to even top $400M in over 5 years of DCEU releases. And it represents a historic downfall that has additional broader implications, as I’ll get to momentarily.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom’s shocking $726.7 million drop from the first Aquaman movie’s billion-plus box office is the second-worst drop-off in superhero cinema history, behind only The Marvels' $925 million drop from Captain Marvel’s massive $1.1 billion cume. The implications of The Marvels’ flopping was far less significant for Marvel than the flopping of The Lost Kingdom is for the DCEU brand.
That may seem unfair, but it’s the reality of the business and of the comparison’s context for both studios and with the public’s larger perception and participation in either the DCEU or MCU.
And Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom’s underachievement has an additional wider contextual relevance. The only other comparable declines include Wonder Woman 1984’s $169 million, $655 million below the first Wonder Woman’s $824 million in 2017. However, that sequel received day-and-date release on HBO Max streaming platform and PVOD in some other markets in 2020, during the mass shutdown of businesses and rising death tolls during the first year of the Covid pandemic.
Additionally, The Suicide Squad in 2021 saw a $580 million fall from its 2016 predecessor’s $749 tally, but in fairness it too released amid shutdowns and widespread fatalities from the pandemic.
So for the record, three of the big four massive sequel drops in the history of Hollywood were DCEU releases from the past four years. Ouch. That’s a relevance no franchise wants.
Make no mistake, this isn’t to mitigate the shockingly huge plummet from Captain Marvel’s high-flying performance and The Marvels’ failure to launch. But it’s obvious from the data that it’s not indicative of an overall failure of the MCU. The context is more immediate.
In contrast. Aquaman and the Lost City the loss comes within the broader collapse of the DCEU, reflected in years of box office and owning three-quarters of the spots on the “worst franchise drops” list.
Perhaps this sounds like kicking a dead horse, since the DCEU is over, it’s been talked to death with regard to its failures, and now the problem of super-failure is every studio’s problem, including Marvel who just had the #1 worst franchise drop of all time. That’s all true.
On the other hand, this is relevant precisely because the DCEU is over, and Warner Bros. Discovery
Whether a year off will be enough distance from the DCEU, we’ll find out. But The Batman - Part II arrives 12 weeks later on October 3rd and DC needs to hope audiences don’t decide one DC film on their must-see list is enough for the year, and that it’s clear Superman: Legacy is a reboot.
Marvel meanwhile is retooling in response to their stumbles in theaters and on streaming, and 2024 is already expected to deliver precisely the sort of box office and critical/audience reactions that put the MCU right back on track when Deadpool & Wolverine hits theaters July 26th.
The superhero genre is going to be fine overall, it will bounce back and reassert itself at a more moderated level across theaters and streaming, with Marvel’s MCU once again leading the way. The question is, how much room will there be for the new DCU in that equation, if they can’t convince audiences the worst days for DC are behind it and that these new films offer something new, unique, and worth experiencing.
And Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom’s second-worst franchise fall in cinema history confirmed the DCEU’s two-to-one ratio of all-time worst box office reversals wasn’t a fluke, it was indicative of an increase in audience rejection of the DCEU. It’s a progressing problem, and it means the stakes and risks are as high as can be for Superman: Legacy.
Which also means the payoff for success is even bigger and more historic, and the bar is set lower this time around. Anything north of $550 million for Superman: Legacy would be a real improvement, while $700 million would be a godsend at this point. $600 is the sweet spot for good enough to be a hit and relaunch, but not a definitive statement of buy-in and breaking the DCEU curse once and for all — that requires delivering another hit in the same (or, ideally, higher) range. And north of $700 million means audiences are ready to forgive and forget, so bring on the DCU.
First, though, the film has to simply not disappoint, by at least crossing that $500 million barrier. Even $500 million will feel like dodging a bullet rather than deflecting it like the Man of Steel needs to for the DCU to achieve lift off and leaving the recent historically bad years behind permanently.
Lucky for WBD, James Gunn is more than capable of reversing the studio’s historic misfortunes. It was Gunn’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 that defied the superhero decline experienced by the rest of the live-action releases in 2023. But he needs the full power of the studio behind him to promote and get the word out, and to support efforts across all films and other mediums. Which means he also needs the studio to stay out of his way on creative decisions, perhaps the single most consistent roadblock to DC cinema’s success the past decade. Reversing that trend is, sadly, out of Gunn’s hands, so we’ll have to wait — and hope.
