NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JULY 29: NBA commissioner Adam Silver (C) poses for photos with members of the ... [+]
In a few months the NBA offseason will be upon us, and that means members of the 2021 draft class are eligible for rookie extensions.
Identifying the value of most of those contracts will be enormously difficult, as the difference between no-nonsense max-caliber players, and guys a level below, can go in a myriad of ways.
So for today, let's stick with players who should be offered max extensions, even if they aren't necessarily obvious candidates.
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
Cunningham has yet to live up to the billing on becoming the American version of Luka Dončić, but that doesn't mean he isn't worth extending to 25% of the salary cap come 2025.
(By that time, the cap is expected to increase by 10% annually, decreasing Cunningham's cap hit on a year-to-year basis.)
Cunningham's production of 22.7 points, and 7.5 assists, while having increased his three-point efficiency, is obviously up there, especially for someone just 22 years old. He played on a lousy team, but that shouldn't be placed on his shoulders.
If the Pistons can get him for below the max, that's a win. But that isn't in the cards, and they can more than justify the decision to max him.
Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
When you have a 6'9 multi-tool 22-year-old player who defends at a high level, gives you almost 20 points per game, and is capable of being a nightly triple-double threat, there's no way such a player isn't deserving of the 25% max.
Barnes might not ever threaten for the scoring title, but he does literally everything else, and looks like a current era hybrid between Andre Iguodala and Scottie Pippen, making him appropriately named.
Toronto can't afford to mess around here. Max offer, right away, and never look back.
Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets
Centers usually get a raw deal on the extension market. Look no further than Onyeka Okongwu, who got just $62 million over four seasons last year.
Şengün, however, is different. The 21-year-old big man is one of the most creative passers in the NBA, nevermind position, and is fully capable of dropping an efficient double-double on anyone, while he pick teams apart with his passing.
21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game in just 32.5 minutes per game? That's a max waiting to happen, particularly as Şengün looks like a player ready for a huge Year 4 leap.
The best of the rest, who might still get maxed
Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
The 6'11 forward/center is supremely gifted, a highly influential defender, strong rebounder, and he's got some scoring pop.
However, he hasn't talent a significant leap since arriving at the NBA scene, which means it's fair to be skeptical of what his ultimate upside is.
Whether that prevents the Cavs from offering him a max extension remains to be seen, and perhaps an overarching question about Mobley is "Even if he doesn't develop a ton more from here, does that make him any less deserving of a max?". The answer might be no.
Jalen Green, Houston Rockets
Green is an explosive scorer, and a guy who everyone can envision one day average 30 points per game. That alone is worth a substantial amount of money.
Is his game max worthy?
It's at the very least a discussion, particularly as the above 25% of the cap scenario is in play, which will see him have a declining cap hit from year to year.
Whether Green negotiates with the Rockets, or a new team, it seems predictable that any team will try to get him for slightly below the max, just to send the message that they need to see more from him. For that reason, it should also be expected he waits around for restricted free agency to bet on himself.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
