What To Expect From The Thunder And Pelicans As Series Moves To New Orleans For Game 3

As the first-round series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and New Orleans Pelicans pivots to Smoothie King Center for the next two contests, there is much to consider about how the remainder of this series plays out. While Oklahoma City has jumped out to a 2-0 lead thus far, it’s far from over.

Interestingly enough, the Pelicans went 28-14 on the road during the regular season, which was the best record of any team in the NBA. However, they couldn’t steal either of the opening two road matchups in Oklahoma City at the start of this series.

As these two teams prepare for a Saturday afternoon contest for Game 3, the outlook of the series looks quite different than it did a week ago before Game 1. There is now two games of data on these squads and how they matchup, which gives insight into what might come next.

Although the Thunder has the 2-0 lead and is coming off of a 32-point victory, what factors will play the largest role in dictating the outcome of the rest of this opening round series?

Brandon Ingram’s Aggressiveness

Through the first two games of this series, Brandon Ingram is averaging just 15 points per game on 37% shooting from the floor. While he’s struggled tremendously on the offensive end, he also hasn’t been nearly as aggressive as he needs to be.

Given he’s the top scoring option on this New Orleans roster, his 27 total shot attempts in this series aren’t enough. As this series shifts back home for the Pelicans, expect Ingram to be much more aggressive and assertive as a scorer and shoot at much higher volume. That could really change the series.

Chet Holmgren’s Floor Spacing

There have always been questions about Chet Holmgren and how he would fare in the playoffs against a strong and physical center like Jonas Valanciunas. To this point, the Thunder rookie has dominated that individual matchup. While Valanciunas has pulled down a significant number of rebounds and has been the Pelicans’ second-leading scorer, he’s already being played off the floor in this series.

This is primarily due to Holmgren’s ability to space the floor, which has been difficult for Valanciunas to defend. He scored 20 points in the first half of Game 2, doing most of his damage from beyond the arc. Holmgren is 5-of-12 (41.7%) from deep in this series, which will need to continue if Oklahoma City wants to make the Pelicans play small.

Pelicans’ Jump Shooting

Interestingly enough, the Pelicans have scored exactly 92 points in each of the first two games of this series. As the team struggles to score and eclipse 100 points, the majority of the issues have been around jump shots.

New Orleans has converted on just 27.7% of its triples, which is the second-worst mark of any playoff team thus far. Furthermore, the Pelicans have made just 47.8% of their midrange shots, compared to the 56% clip the Thunder is shooting at from that distance. If this series is going to turn around, it will take the Pelicans starting to knock down jumpers. If not, it could be a sweep.

Turnovers and Transition

The pace of play was something being monitored entering this series, as the Thunder thrives on playing fast. New Orleans generally plays slower, but has the ability to speed up when needed.

In either case, Oklahoma City has been able to control the tempo and speed the Pelicans up to the point where turnovers have been an issue. New Orleans has turned the ball over 17 times per game to the Thunder’s 11 per contest. Furthermore, Oklahoma City has been able to get out in transition — partially due to forcing turnovers — and has generated 34 total fast break points in this series. The Pelicans have only scored 13 fast break points thus far. As this series goes on, taking care of the ball and the transition game will be another key.

Game 3 will take place on Saturday at 2:30 p.m. CT in New Orleans at Smoothie King Center. As of now, there is no indication that Zion Williamson will be back at any point in this series for the Pelicans, which continues to be the biggest factor.