A plate of cookies provides a simple test for whether a student will thrive in a public college.
Updated, May 2, 2024: This article has been adjusted to reflect relative vs. absolute differences in graduation rates when comparing private to public colleges.
In this season of college admissions, many students are faced with having to decide between public colleges and private colleges. To help with this decision process, I offer students a simple thought experiment.
Anyone who has spent time around educators will have heard of the marshmallow test. Devised by Stanford University psychologist Walter Mischel in 1970, the marshmallow test was a study of delayed gratification. In the test, students were given a choice between an immediate reward now—a marshmallow—or two rewards if they could wait a certain length of time without eating the marshmallow. The researcher would then leave the room for about 15 minutes and return with the promised second treat to be given to those who had not eaten the marshmallow. Follow-up studies showed that the children who could exercise self-control had long-term better outcomes in various domains, such as higher educational attainment and higher lifetime earnings.
I use the marshmallow test to illustrate the tradition of sweet-treat tests being used to predict educational outcomes. It is in this vein that I offer a new test based on a different dessert scenario to determine whether a student is likely to succeed at a public college. I call it “the Cookie Test.”
Differences Between Public Colleges And Private Colleges
Before discussing the test itself, it is useful to examine critical differentiators between public and private colleges. Funding structures aside, the big difference between the two is that while public colleges are easier to get into, they are also easier to fail out of. Private colleges are the opposite: harder to get in, but once in, you are less likely to fail.
According to data from the National Center for Education Statistics, the average 4-year graduation rates for private colleges are 36% higher, than those for public colleges (57.2% vs. 42.1%). One might think this is merely due to differences in selectivity and underlying student ability. But this is not so. If one compares results from public and private schools with the same median ACT, these differences in graduation rates persist.
The difference is likely due to the greater degree of support provided to students at private colleges, including smaller class sizes, greater opportunities for students to live on campus, and better access to academic advising and support staff.
Another important feature often overlooked is the ability for students to take the courses they need to meet major or degree requirements in a timely manner. A common complaint among students from large state colleges is that they could not get a class they needed, so they had to spend an additional semester or two to graduate. This is why the difference in graduation rates narrows when one looks at the 6-year figures, with private colleges outperforming public by only 9% (68.4% vs. 62.6%).
Whether it is due to a lack of counseling, individual attention, access to needed courses, or some combination, the result is the same: reduced likelihood of graduating. The recurring message sent by public colleges to their students is one of expendability. When you are imminently replaceable, as students are in large public colleges, you become an expendable asset.
So, What Does It Take To Succeed?
The attributes most often associated with student success in public colleges include being proactive, taking ownership, being organized, being self-assertive, and being self-motivated.
While these attributes will lead to success in any college, their absence in a resource-constrained environment can be enough to set students on the path to failure. Once on the path to failure, these students will need the additional layers of support found in private colleges if they are to right their course.
This is where the Cookie Test enters the picture as a predictor of success in a public college—or conversely, as an indicator of students better served in a smaller private institution.
The Cookie Test — A College Admissions Parable
The Cookie Test is a simple thought experiment designed to measure the willingness to assert one’s self-interest when confronted by asymmetric resources.
It starts with a simple hypothetical. A student is asked: “Imagine that you are in a waiting room at a college, waiting for your turn to speak to an admissions officer. You are seated at a table with two other students who are also waiting. In the center of the table is a plate with five cookies. How many cookies do you eat?”
There are any number of possible responses to the question. Some students will argue that politeness dictates taking only a single cookie or that a negotiation process with the other students should be undertaken. Other students will posit that the admissions office must have spy cameras watching their behavior, so they should act a certain way, thinking that it is what admissions want. Parameters can be adjusted and fine-tuned to address such concerns. At the end of it all, the student must produce a number. And this is the test.
Unless the ultimate number of cookies is at least two, I would advise the student to choose a private college over a public one. Self abnegation is all well and good when one is part of a community that is invested in your success. However, a college education is a consumer product for which students and their parents pay large sums. If you are going to attend a public college where resources are limited, and where you are readily replaceable, then being willing to assert yourself and take what you need will lead to better outcomes. If you want the luxury of civility, seek private colleges.
