Topline
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. urged President Joe Biden to take a “no spoiler pledge” to drop out of the race if polls show that Kennedy Jr. would perform better against Trump than Biden in a head-to-head matchup—as polls show he could peel off enough votes from either candidate to sway the results of the decidedly close race.
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speak at a press conference in the Brooklyn ... [+]
Key Facts
Kennedy Jr. said Wednesday he would be willing to take a “no spoiler pledge” if Biden also commits to doing the same, pointing to internal polling from his campaign, which it claims shows Trump would win with or without Kennedy Jr. in the race (Forbes has not independently verified the poll by John Zogby Strategies).
The pledge would require Biden’s campaign and Kennedy Jr.’s campaign to split the costs of a 50-state poll that would determine whether he or Biden performs better against Trump, with the loser agreeing to drop out of the race.
It’s unlikely Biden would ever agree to the pledge, and even if he did, Kennedy Jr. faces an uphill battle in gaining ballot access in all 50 states, or even enough to clear the 270-electoral vote threshold needed to win the election.
Since he is running as an independent, without the support of a major political party, Kennedy Jr. is required to petition for ballot access in all 50 states and so far has only successfully done so in California, Michigan and Utah.
His campaign has also said it has enough signatures to make the ballots in Hawaii, Idaho, North Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, but those states have yet to officially verify his petitions.
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Big Number
15%. That’s the share of voters who would cast their ballots for Trump in a two-way race, but would switch their votes to Kennedy Jr. in a five-way contest with independent candidate Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein also on the ballot, according to an April 12-16 NBC poll. That’s compared to 7% of Biden voters who would switch their votes to Kennedy Jr. The poll also found that Biden would trail Trump by two points in a head-to-head matchup, but would lead Trump by two points with the alternative candidates in play.
Key Background
Kennedy Jr. is somewhat of a political enigma—a lifelong Democrat and scion of one of the country’s most famous Democratic families, whose libertarian leanings and anti-vaccine advocacy could also appeal to Republican voters. Both Biden’s and Trump’s campaign have indicated Kennedy Jr. poses a real threat to their candidacies. The Democratic National Committee has filed complaints with the Federal Election Commission against Kennedy Jr.’s campaign, alleging it is illegally coordinating with the American Values PAC supporting him to get him on the ballot, while more than a dozen members of the Kennedy family recently endorsed Biden. Trump, meanwhile, called Kennedy Jr. a “Democratic ‘Plant’” in a Truth Social rant Friday, while touting his Democratic accolades and warning “A Vote for Junior’ would essentially be a WASTED PROTEST VOTE, that could swing either way, but would only swing against the Democrats if Republicans knew the true story about him.”
Tangent
Underscoring concerns that Kennedy Jr. could spoil Trump’s candidacy, the former president’s campaign lamented his frequent appearances on conservative media in a statement to Politico published Wednesday, calling it “concerning and beyond logic,” his co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita told the outlet. Politico noted that nearly half of the 69 media appearances listed on Kennedy Jr.’s website were with conservative, conservative-leaning or libertarian-leaning hosts.
Further Reading
RFK Jr. Candidacy Hurts Trump More Than Biden, Poll Reports (Forbes)
Kennedy Family Members Endorse Biden En Masse In Public Snub For Relative RFK Jr. (Forbes)
Why RFK Jr. Could Hurt Biden More Than Trump—As Democrats Launch Anti-Third Party Campaign (Forbes)
