Russia And Ukraine Are Adapting For The Next Phase Of The War

The war between Russia and Ukraine has evolved over the past 26 months, as both militaries fielded new technologies, adopted new strategies, and attempted to break the resolve of their adversaries. The conflict began with a full-scale invasion by the Russia military, met by a staunch Ukrainian defense that halted it. This led to a grueling attritional fight across southern and eastern Ukraine, with Russia making slow gains. Last summer, the Ukrainian military launched its counteroffensive, which achieved only limited success against the thick Russian obstacle belts. As the conflict enters its third summer of fighting, another shift is expected, with Russia renewing its offensive and Ukraine adapting its defensive strategy accordingly.

Russian forces are currently engaged in shaping operations, which are setting the stage for a new offensive that will likely reach full strength by early summer. These shaping operations include a large number of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, with a focus on energy installations. The goals of these strikes are twofold: to erode Ukrainian morale and to degrade Ukraine’s growing defense industrial base. Without electricity, Ukrainian defense industries will not be able to develop and field the critical drone and electronic warfare equipment needed by its military ahead of this summer’s offensive.

On the ground, Russia is making a concentrated effort to seize the town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk Oblast. The Russian progress in that region is limited by the establishment of a Ukrainian defensive belt tied to several “fortress cities.” These cities have been heavily fortified by the Ukrainians and would be difficult for Russian forces to capture without having first secured Chasiv Yar. The seizure of this town would provide the Russians with a base of operations to attack Kostyantynivka, the city which forms the southern edge of the Ukrainian defensive belt. They would also be striking distance from Druzhkivka, another key city. The Russian forces would then be able to push through the southern portion of the Ukrainian defensive belt, allowing them to capture significant territory in the region. A Ukrainian commander further emphasized the importance of holding Chasiv Yar, stating that the Russians are seeking to capture it prior to May 9.

While these actions are going on, Russia is also building up its forces, resupplying their front-line units with personnel and equipment. Additionally, the Russian defense industrial base is developing new munitions and equipment, rapidly getting key technologies into the hands of their soldiers. Furthermore, efforts are underway to repair damaged vehicles, particularly those targeted by Ukrainian precision drone strikes, which typically damage but do not destroy the vehicles.

For Ukraine to defend against this offensive, they require a shift in their strategies. Ukraine, similar to Russia, has been loosely following Soviet doctrine, which relies heavily on artillery. In this doctrine, the infantry and armor elements are intended primarily to protect the artillery elements, which are positioned in key positions. The artillery then targets their adversaries in coordination with drones, electronic warfare, and forward observers; they can then inflict significant damage and force the enemy to withdraw from an area.

However, with Ukraine running low on artillery rounds, they will need to shift and adopt a new strategy, perhaps leveraging tactics more in line with American military doctrine. This shift emphasizes defensive actions that stall enemy advances, while simultaneously maintaining the ability to quickly transition to offense, allowing Ukraine to punch holes in the stretched Russian lines. Such an offense would not only target weaker portions in the Russian offense but may also involve moving into the Crimean Peninsula. This in turn would allow the Ukrainian forces to envelope Russian forces, disrupt Russian momentum, and help Ukraine regain the initiative on the battlefield. Importantly, these tactics rely less heavily on artillery and more on maneuver elements like armor and infantry.

This shift in the Ukrainian strategy is reflected in the content of recent aid packages from Germany and the United States. While the packages included munitions and other items that would be useful for establishing a defensive posture, they also contained items that are primarily used for offensive operations. In particular, these aid packages included significant mine clearing equipment, including remote-controlled mine clearing systems, mine plows, and demolitions for obstacle clearing. These items would allow the Ukrainians to push deep into the Russian lines.

As the war continues to progress, both sides are striving to secure tactical advantages leveraging their respective strengths. The Russian forces boast a larger fighting force and abundant munitions, affording them significant firepower for a renewed offensive. In contrast, the Ukrainian military has established a formidable defensive line that will pose challenges for the advancing Russian forces. However, with a lack of artillery shells, Ukraine will need to change its strategy, simultaneously maintaining their defensive posture while also counterattacking to break the Russian lines. Both militaries will continue to evolve their strategies to reflect the dynamics of the battlefield coupled with an ever-shifting global socio-political climate.