Russia Is Shifting From Loitering Munitions To Ballistic Missiles

For the past 27 months, Russia has barraged Ukraine with missile strikes as part of the ongoing war between the two countries. Ukraine responded with establishing a network of air-defense systems positioned in strategic locations to reduce the effectiveness of each strike. In turn, the Russian military adopted the use of strike packages to confuse the air-defense systems, such that each barrage combines cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, and loitering munitions. Prior to the large offensive operation planned for this summer, the Russians changed the content of their strike packages, moving away from loitering munitions and sea-launched cruise missiles, and relying more on ballistic missiles and air-launched cruise missiles.

The use of strike packages leverages Russia’s arsenal of diverse missile systems, allowing for flexible strike configurations. The Russian missile stockpiles include numerous types of cruise missiles, which can be fired from ships or aircraft, and ballistic missiles, which are typically ground-launched. While cruise missiles are highly maneuverable, enabling them to evade air-defense systems, they are slower compared to ballistic missiles, which trade maneuverability for speed. Approximately four years ago, Russia added hypersonic weapons to its arsenal. These weapons combine the speed of ballistic missiles with the agility of cruise missiles; however, these weapons are limited in number and expensive. Additionally, Russia has acquired loitering munitions, such as the Shahed drones from Iran, which are capable of very precise strikes while flying over a range of altitudes.

By combining the different missile types into each strike package, the Russian forces are trying to overwhelm and confuse Ukrainian air-defense systems, which have a very limited time to detect and respond to incoming rounds. This strategy has proven effective, with a significant number of rounds being able to breach Ukrainian defenses. For example, the Ukrainians were able to intercept two-thirds of the Russian missiles fired on February 7, 2024, allowing 15 missiles to still reach their target.

In recent months, the composition of strike packages has undergone notable changes. There has been a decreased usage of Shahed drones and similar loitering munition. Meanwhile, there has been an increase in the usage of ballistic missiles, particularly Iskander missiles launched from Crimea. The proximity of Crimea to these targets significantly reduces the reaction time available to Ukrainian air-defense systems, amplifying the effectiveness of the strike. Similarly, as the Russian Air Force has started to play an increasing role in the conflict, naval-launched cruised missiles are being replaced with air-launched cruised missiles, including the Kh-22 missile. Ukrainian air-defenses have had very limited success with countering the Iskander and Kh-22 missile.

The movement away from loitering munitions in favor of ballistic missiles stems in part from improvements in Ukrainian counter-drone technology, which has had increasing success at detecting and neutralizing loitering munitions. Indeed, the Ukrainians have been able to shoot down between 75 and 100 percent of the Shahed drones used in recent strikes. This is in comparison to the short-range ballistic missiles, which the Ukrainians are struggling to intercept given their very short time of flight. Further, by not using loitering munitions during the current barrages, the Russians will be able to modify the drones to be more resilient to Ukrainian counter-drone systems, allowing them to be used later this summer during the main portion of their offensive.

The change in strike package composition is also linked to the general shortage of Ukrainian munitions and equipment. Earlier in the war, launching ballistic missiles from Crimea would have been risky because the Ukrainian forces would be able to identify and target the launch vehicles. However, the current situation allows Russia to utilize Crimea as a base for ballistic missile attacks, as Ukrainian are focusing their limited resources on holding their defensive lines in the Donbas region. Similarly, the shortage of anti-air assets by the Ukrainians has allowed the Russian Air Force to play a larger role, including the launching of cruise missiles.

In the near-term, Russia will continue to use this composition in their strike packages, relying more on ballistic missiles than loitering munitions. The composition will likely change later in the summer as the Russians launch their offensive operation, at which time loitering munitions would be expected to play an increasingly important role. Around that time, Ukraine will be receiving their much-needed aid from the United States and other NATO countries, allowing them to better respond the wide array of missiles that could be used by Russia. Similar to all technologies used in the war, the Russian strike packages and the Ukrainian air-defense systems will continue to evolve to account for the dynamics of the battlefield.