In its most recent rate announcement on April 10, 2024, the Bank of Canada once again decided to hold its key interest rate at 5%, where it has been since July 2023. In his recent Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, Governor Tiff Macklem shared three messages:
1) Monetary policy is working as CPI and core inflation have both eased in recent months and the Bank expects inflation to move closer to the 2% target later this year.
2) Economic growth is picking up and the Bank expects GDP to continue strengthening into 2025.
3) As the Bank considers how much longer to hold the key interest rate at 5%, “we’re looking for solid evidence that the recent further easing in underlying inflation will be sustained.”
However, Macklem noted that while price increases are slowing across most major categories, shelter cost inflation remains very high and is still the biggest contributor to overall inflation. Rising gasoline prices also create upward pressure.
Still, the BoC expects CPI inflation to ease below 2.5% in the second half of 2024 and reach the 2% target in 2025. Risks to this forecast include global tensions and political instability, a hot housing market in Canada, wage growth staying high relative to productivity, or, if global and/of national economic activity is weaker than expected. In May 2024, the U.S. Fed held the target rate unchanged at a 23-year high due to stubborn inflation.
“We don’t want to leave monetary policy this restrictive longer than we need to,” noted Macklem. “But if we lower our policy interest rate too early or cut too fast, we could jeopardize the progress we’ve made bringing inflation down.”
The next rate announcement is on June 5, 2024.
Related: The Bank of Canada Holds Key Interest Rate at 5%